From the beginning Putin has been highlighting three issues for Russia that are underpinning the Russia Ukraine War.
The current Western narrative is that Putin is some megla-maniac that wants to conquer Ukraine for the sake of Russian expansionism. That is why he started the war the narrative claims. However, the truth is not that simple.
Putin has been concerned for decades at NATO’s setting up shop at his doorstep. Russia is not only fighting a battle with Ukraine, Russia considers it is fighting a battle against the U.S.-dominated security umbrella NATO and for good reason.
1. 2008 NATO Summit
The taproot of the crisis is the American-led effort to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s borders. That strategy has three prongs: integrating Ukraine into the EU, turning Ukraine into a pro-Western liberal democracy, and most importantly, incorporating Ukraine into NATO. The strategy was set in motion at NATO’s annual summit in Bucharest in April 2008, when the alliance announced that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members.”
Russian leaders responded immediately with outrage, making it clear that they saw this decision as an existential threat, and they had no intention of letting either country join NATO. According to a respected Russian journalist, Putin “flew into a rage,” and warned that “if Ukraine joins NATO, it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions.”
Putin has always argued for a neutral stance for Ukraine and Georgia with regards to NATO.
However, since 2014 USA and other NATO countries have been engaged in supplying arms and performing combat training exercises with Ukraine forces. Some would argue that Ukraine has already been adopted as a quasi NATO nation.
At a press conference on February 22, 2022, just days before the Russia Ukraine war started, Putin reiterated his earlier stance: “We are categorically opposed to Ukraine joining NATO because this poses a threat to us, and we have arguments to support this. I have repeatedly spoken about it in this hall.” He then made it clear that he recognized that Ukraine was becoming a de facto member of NATO. The United States and its allies, he said, “continue to pump the current Kiev authorities full of modern types of weapons.” He went on to say that if this was not stopped, Moscow “would be left with an ‘anti-Russia’ armed to the teeth. This is totally unacceptable.”
The only way to hose down Russia on this point would be if NATO didn’t accept Ukraine as a member for the time being.
2. Eight years of Separatist Control in the Donbas Regions of Ukraine
In 2013 the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Donbas regions) ranked No. 1 and 5, respectively, among Ukrainian constituent territories in terms of the value of their industrial production. They jointly accounted for 25% of Ukraine’s total industrial production and 14% of Ukraine’s GDP.
After Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, pro Russian protests began happening in the that Donbas region. Protestors took over government buildings, Ukraine retaliated. On May 11th a referendum of the mainly Russian speaking people in the region agreed to maintain ties with Russia. Russia joined the fight and a ceasefire called the Minsk Agreement was created in 2015. 14,000 people died in this conflict and the ceasefire keeps being breached.
Moscow-backed separatists have controlled the southeastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, for the past eight years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin finally recognised the two regions as republics despite their earlier 2014 referendums, only on Monday 21 February 2022. This paved the way for the official presence of Russian troops in the rebel-controlled areas that occupied about a third of Donetsk and Luhansk.
This announcement of the recognition of the two areas as under Russian protection led to a first round of economic sanctions from NATO countries the following day.
On, the morning of the start of the Russia Ukraine War, February 24 2022, Putin declared the reasons for and the main purpose of Russia’s actions – “assistance to our people in Donbas, who for nearly eight years been exposed to barbaric attacks, including blockade, large-scale punitive operations, terrorist attacks and artillery bombardments, in fact, real genocide,” reported by TASS.
It is clear that the control of Donbas and adjacent areas would secure the 2014 Russian annexure of the Crimea, plus its water and power. Plus annexing this region would add 2% to Russia’s GDP. Is the world prepared to standby a let this happen? Klaus Schwab and the WEF have already swung their support behind Ukraine.
3. Pentagon funded Bio-labs in Ukraine
On Feb. 27, the Russian Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina came out endorsing the theory, posting on Facebook, according to Serbian broadcaster N1, that the United States was “filling Ukraine with biolabs, which were—very possibly—used to study methods for destroying the Russian people at the genetic level.” Later reports claimed The US has been developing infectious diseases in “biolabs in Ukraine” with the aim of spreading them to Russia disguised as natural outbreaks. Russia claimed that US was running around 30 biolabs in Ukraine, possibly creating biological weapons. Russian ministry also accused that the United States has spent around $200 million on these biolabs.
All of these facts the US Government and international Western media vehemently denied. However the Russian invading forces did indeed uncover traces of the labs presence in Ukraine.
In June, after months of denial The Pentagon finally admitted that it had 46 biolabs operating in Ukraine. They also admitted that the labs were handling dangerous pathogens.
It is now apparent Russia had good cause to be alarmed at the US investment into Wuhan type biolabs near Russia’s borders. These labs need to be removed in order to de-escalate the issue.
The Cost of the Russia Ukraine War
This Russia Ukraine war has been an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine. Russian Matters reports “Putin made it clear in 2008 that Russia would wreck Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO if it refused to remain neutral. He is delivering on that promise.
Russian forces have conquered 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and destroyed or badly damaged many Ukrainian cities and towns.
More than 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country, while more than 8 million have been internally displaced. Many thousands of Ukrainians—including innocent civilians—are dead or badly wounded and the Ukrainian economy is in shambles.
The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by almost 50 percent over the course of 2022. Estimates are that approximately 100 billion dollars’ worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine and that it will take close to a trillion dollars to rebuild the country. In the meantime, Kyiv requires about $5 billion of aid every month just to keep the government running.”
Furthermore, there appears to be little hope that Ukraine will be able to regain use of its ports on the Azov and Black Seas anytime soon. Before the Russia Ukraine war, roughly 70 percent of all Ukrainian exports and imports—and 98 percent of its grain exports—moved through these ports.
This was the basic situation after less than 4 months of fighting. It is downright scary to contemplate what Ukraine will look like if this Russia Ukraine war drags on for a few more years.”
Russia’s Worst nightmare begins as Ukraine Applies to join NATO
Russia wanted Ukraine to remain a neutral state. Indeed, Zelensky briefly mentioned this possibility in the early days of the war. However, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, on September 30th 2022, announced that Ukraine was officially applying for a fast tracked membership of NATO. This came just a few hours after Vladimir Putin in a Kremlin ceremony said that he was annexing four Eastern Ukrainian provinces. The annexation included the Zaporizhia region that is home Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, whose reactors were shut down last month.
Ukraine’s membership however, is not guaranteed. Only nine of NATO’s 30 members have voted to support Ukraine’s bid. Partially because Ukraine is rated as the 174th worst out of 180 countries in the world for public sector corruption. (NATO does have political and social systems criteria for joining). Also there is a real possibility of a nuclear war escalation by Russia with US and other European NATO countries if Ukraine is accepted.
Ongoing Sabotage to Russian Infrastructure.
Two weeks ago three of the 11 Billion dollar Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines were sabotaged, most believe by the US. It was a blow to Russia’s prospective gas sales to Europe and to peace talks aimed at ending the Russia Ukraine war.
On Saturday 8th October 2022 the Kerch bridge between Crimea and mainland Russia was partially destroyed by a truck bomb. The bombing killed three people in an approaching car and brought down sections of road taking traffic in one direction. No one has claimed responsibility for the truck bomb attack but the damage will thwart supply to Russian forces involved in the Russian Ukraine war and to the Crimea.
Both of these attacks do nothing but inflame the situation surrounding the Russia Ukraine War and drive Putin further into considering retaliation. You have to ask to whose benefit?
The prospect of nuclear war.
Russia has been forced by NATO and UN sanctions into a corner whereby Russia must win its war in Ukraine. Already it is offering alternate payment systems— crypto being one of them—to trade outside of the sanctions for their gas and oil sales.
The opening of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream to Germany could have been the lynchpin to peace negotiations for stopping this war. With that gone it raises the spectre of continued escalation to a nuclear threat not only with Ukraine but its NATO supporting partners.
The prospects of this would be exceedingly grim for the future of our world as this simulation predicts.
Russia has recently mobilised the Belgorod its largest nuclear submarine. The whereabouts of a new Russian submarine, the Belgorod, captured headlines around the world. With a degree of hysteria, there were reports that it has been deployed with its nuclear ‘apocalypse’ and ‘doomsday’ weapons. News of it missing from its usual dock immediately sent the internet and social media into a flurry.
The Eurasian Times gave a detail report of its capabilities. The submarine can reportedly remain underwater for an estimated 120 days without returning to the surface and travel at 60 knots. Its propellers are said to have been designed to escape sonar.
The Belgorod is designed for two roles: the first is to act as a host submarine or a ‘mothership’ to the small, nuclear-powered submarines that can dive deeply, and the second is as a nuclear strike and deterrence vessel.
To carry out a nuclear strike, Belgorod will carry six nuclear-tipped Poseidon UUVs. The weapon’s speed is up 108 knots, making it uncatchable. Its operating depth is about 1,000 meters (3,300 feet), making it elusive as well.
Armed with a two-megaton nuclear warhead, the Poseidon is said to be capable of a bomb that can trigger already-deadly tsunamis made of dangerously radioactive water in major cities.
Powered by a nuclear reactor, the Poseidon UUV has an unlimited range of operational flexibility in terms of launch and target locations. It can also be launched from under the ice caps.
In other words, Russia has a tactical nuclear advantage with this elusive super-submarine against NATO and specifically the US. Putin said twice recently he will use nuclear weapons, if backed into a corner over the Russian Ukraine War.
Currently the internet is awash with images of Russian nuclear rockets being mobilised along streets in the dead of night. Really does it matter if Putin deploys one nuclear missile on Ukraine. Is NATO just going to stand by and allow Ukraine to be nuked?
A NATO response is not going to be measured against Putin. The UK has already said they would consider using nuclear force if required. So, it appears the fate of the world now rests with Putin and his ability to navigate an effective outcome in this Russia Ukraine war against what he perceives as his nemesis, NATO.
EDITOR: People always talk about the religious persecution in the underground Church in China or islamic countries. However religious persecution takes a different form of persecution under Communism. In 2017 all churches in the Donbas area had to register in order to meet. Since March 2019 all Baptist Union congregations were ordered to halt public worship or face punishment. Since the passing of the Religion Law, registration has been refused for every Protestant, Baptist and Pentecostal community. This has effectively banned all forms of public worship aside from the Russian Orthodox Church.
